Sixers try to bounce back vs. bumbling Bobcats

Basketball Betting Lines

01/27/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia 76ers try to bounce back from a rare loss at home this evening when they welcome the hapless Charlotte Bobcats to the Wells Fargo Center.

Philadelphia lost for only the second time in 10 tries in front of its fans on Wednesday, falling in overtime, 97-90, to the New Jersey Nets.

Lou Williams ended with 17 points and six assists for Philadelphia, which fell to 8-2 at home this season. Elton Brand and Jrue Holiday had 16 and 14 points, respectively.

Trailing by four, 88-84, with 2 1/2 minutes left in overtime, Philly ripped off six straight points to take the lead. Holiday capped the surge with an easy steal off an inbounds pass and slam, making it 90-88 with 1:18 to go.

But Deron Williams made a jumper and three-pointer around Jodie Meeks' missed three-pointer to give New Jersey a 93-90 edge with 26.8 seconds left. The Nets then sealed the win with four free throws.

"We had five fast break points tonight. That was the difference," said Sixers coach Doug Collins. "We never could get out and run."

After winning nine of 10 games, the Sixers have now lost three of five and have surrendered 95.4 points-per-game in doing so. Not helping any is the fact that the team is without its two centers Spencer Hawes (Achilles) and Nik Vucevic (quadriceps).

"We definitely need our bigs," Brand said. "We're looking forward to getting them back, but we just couldn't get stops."

The Sixers added some depth earlier Friday by signing veteran free agent center Francisco Elson.

"We are happy to pick up Francisco Elson, a veteran big man who can help bolster our front court, Sixers president of basketball operations Rod Thorn said when announcing the signing.

Charlotte, meanwhile, continues to be one of the league's worst teams at 3-16. The Bobcats dropped their sixth straight game on Wednesday to the equally anemic Washington Wizards, losing 92-75.

Matt Carroll scored 17 points in his first start of the year for the Bobcats, who were without starters D.J. Augustin (toe) and Gerald Henderson (back).

The Bobcats got help from rookie Kemba Walker, who scored eight points to go with four assists and six boards in place of Augustin; and Tyrus Thomas, who added 13 points, nine rebounds and a career-high nine blocks for Charlotte, which has dropped seven in a row on the road.

"As I said last night, take three or four of your best players off any team, and you're not gonna play well," Charlotte coach Paul Silas said about his team's recent injuries. "Our scorers, our two leading scorers are not playing, how are we gonna score?"

The loss was the 12th in 13 tries for the Bobcats, who will be without Augustin again tonight. Henderson will likely be a game-time decision.

Philadelphia could have an even bigger edge tonight, as the home team in this series has won the last four and seven of the last eight contests. Charlotte has also dropped 10 of its last 13 in the City of Brotherly Love.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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